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Public health authorities and policy makers

Surveillance data, liberated into a forecast you can interrogate.

Antimicrobial-resistance surveillance is fragmented across incompatible national and international systems. Prognos ingests those sources into a single harmonised surface and forecasts trajectories with explicit uncertainty, for WHO, UKHSA, US CDC, ECDC, national NIHs, and equivalent authorities globally, with no region privileged.

Inside PrognosTalk to us about an authority deployment

Surveillance data liberation

From fragmented systems to one analytical surface

The harmonisation logic is transparent and annotated. An analyst can see exactly how two sources were reconciled, rather than trusting a black box.

Fragmented sources

  • WHO GLASS90+ countries
  • ECDC EARS-Net30 EU/EEA
  • US CDCnational
  • UKHSAnational
  • Pakistan NIHnational
  • ICMR Indianational

Harmonisation layer

Transparent, annotated reconciliation, not an opaque merge.

  • Antibiotic-name normalisation
  • Specimen-category mapping
  • Breakpoint-standard tracking
  • WHO AWaRe classification

Unified surface

One analytical surface

Source attribution and a data-freshness indicator preserved on every record.

resistance %specimenAWaRebreakpointlast ingested
Surveillance data liberation: WHO GLASS, ECDC EARS-Net, US CDC, UKHSA, Pakistan NIH, and ICMR India flow into a harmonisation layer that normalises antibiotic names, maps specimen categories, tracks breakpoint standards, and applies the WHO AWaRe classification, producing a single analytical surface with source attribution and data-freshness indicators.

Trajectory forecasting

Projections that show their uncertainty.

Resistance does not move in straight lines, and a forecast that hides its error bars is worse than none. Every Prognos projection widens its confidence interval into the future and states its data lag, so a policy maker can weigh the evidence honestly.

Ciprofloxacin resistance trajectory, E. coli
Illustrative forecast of E. coli resistance to ciprofloxacin rising from 20 percent in 2018 to 35 percent in 2024, projected to about 41 percent by 2027 with a widening confidence interval.10%20%30%40%50%201820202022202420262027forecast →
Observed Projected Confidence interval

The workflow

From raw surveillance to a defensible brief

  1. 01

    Ingest fragmented sources

    WHO GLASS (90+ countries), ECDC EARS-Net (30 EU/EEA countries), US CDC, UKHSA, Pakistan NIH, and ICMR India arrive in incompatible formats with different conventions.

  2. 02

    Harmonise transparently

    Antibiotic-name normalisation, specimen-category mapping, breakpoint-standard tracking, and WHO AWaRe classification. Each reconciliation is annotated, not an opaque merge.

  3. 03

    Forecast with uncertainty

    Trajectories carry confidence-interval bands that widen into the future, with source attribution and a data-freshness indicator on every record.

  4. 04

    Brief the decision

    Oris assembles evidence-ranked policy briefs. The platform surfaces options; the policy maker decides. The research-only boundary is never out of view.

Evidence-ranked options. The authority decides.

The platform does not auto-execute policy or institutional actions, and it does not pretend to certainty it lacks. Where surveillance coverage is absent, it reports the gap rather than interpolating across it. The decision authority remains with the public-health professional.

Bring your surveillance data into one surface.

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